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THE WAR NO ONE WANTS
(Author’s note: No matter what side of this issue you fall on, no one wants this war. However, the story below represents a “likely” scenario.)
We’ve been training out in the desert for 6 months now. Boredom and monotony are punctuated with urgent and realistic drills. They never really tell us if we are being called into action or is this just another training maneuver. I really can’t complain because I volunteered for this mission. We were told at the start that our success would be vital for the survival of my people.
Over and over, we have practiced negotiating the desert terrain in almost complete darkness, training for a mission we all hoped would never be put into action. Our role was to make a stealthy entry into enemy territory and locate key defense fortifications, determine troop strength, locate weapons production facilities, and missile sites.
Today, we are called into readiness and told, “this is not a drill”. I take a short helicopter ride back to Tel Aviv for an important briefing. It seems our intelligence people (among the best in the world) have conclusive evidence that the Iranians are now producing nuclear weapons. They have been allowed to continue their nuclear development program under the guise that it was for peaceful use in power generation. Now, even the passive and largely inept Nuclear Regulatory Committee has acknowledged that the Iranian program is very suspect.
The Israeli people do not want war, we are a peaceful people, however, our tiny nation is surrounded by countries that choose to deny us our very existence. The rhetoric lately has reached a feverish pitch, as leaders of foreign governments swear to “wipe us off the map” or “push us into the sea”. These are threats that we do not take lightly. Our history dictates that we face these threats or suffer unacceptable consequences. If these madmen are allowed to develop and posses nuclear weapons, our chances of defending our nation are seriously compromised. I hope the rest of the world understands that waiting is a risk we can not afford to take.
Several times in the past we have acted preemptively and aggressively against foreign powers, when we felt our national security was at stake. A small country like Israel can not afford to rely on a purely defensive posture. In our preemptive strikes against Iraq and Syria, we risked the wrath of global opinion and condemnation. Fortunately we consider global opinion a distant second to national security in our planning. Afterward diplomats from many countries, even those that are friendly to us, were speaking out against our actions. The truth is, that many of those same foreign leaders knew of our actions in advance, and secretly aided us in our efforts. I asked myself if the other world powers would turn against us if we act first again this time, but I console myself with the fact that I am just a soldier. The protection of my country and my people are paramount to me.
In any case, the prime minister has determined that we must strike first and we must strike now. It has also been determined that my small group of IDF special forces will be the tip of the spear, we are to ordered to be ready to deploy within 24 hours. It is made known to me that the Americans have knowledge of our plan and will “turn their back” and open a land and air corridor thru the Iraqi territory that they occupy for our planes and troops.
Because of our history of “first attack”, our targets have been hardened and our adversaries are on alert for our possible attack. The facilities we are going after have been embedded deep in the earth, covered by tons of concrete and protected by batteries of anti aircraft instillations. We are also faced with the formidable task of simultaneously taking out several production facilities scattered about the country. Logistically, this is much more distant and difficult than our previously successful missions. Fortunately we already have operators and agents on the ground providing us valuable real time intelligence. Every day we wait to react now, only lessens our chance of success.
Our goal will be to so damage these facilities as to negate their ability to produce weapon grade material, and set back their progress a dozen years or so. Unfortunately, now that this horrible technology exists, we can no longer “put the genie back in the bottle”
I am told that our government has authorized the use of force, using any and all means at our disposal to accomplish this mission. That is military speak for all out war and even the use of the terrible weapons that our country has at it’s disposal. This was not a decision that was made lightly, and we are all convinced that our success is a matter of national survival.
Our military has been war planning for this strike for several years now, but we have delayed taking action. We have waited at the urging of the United States, and have pursued every diplomatic channel. Many say we have waited too long. We have run thru every possible variation of the attack, carefully weighing the effects on both Israel and the entire Middle East.
Our planners were 100% correct in assuming that the Syrians would not retaliate after we bombed their secret Korean inspired nuclear facility in the desert, in fact they quietly buried the remains to hide them from satellite view. We have no such delusions this time around. For starters Iran has one of the largest and most well equipped armies in the world, and we consider a counter attack eminent.
A counter attack would immediately escalate the incident into an all out regional war. We are confident that we would face missile strikes and troop incursions on at least two fronts. We anticipate that Syrians, and their clients Hamas and Hezbollah would quickly join the battle. We feel confident that the U.S. would then be forced into the battle, despite being seriously over extended in Iran and Afghanistan. American troops in Iraq would be overrun by both Iranian troops and rebels sympathetic to the Iranian cause thought the region. There is also a high likelihood that other more moderate Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia, and Egypt would be under great pressure to join the cause of their Muslim brothers, and if they did not act, face a possible uprising by their own people. It’s possible that even some previously Russian countries could be drawn in, due to economic and military interests in Iran.
In short we feel this war would be the greatest threat to the existence of our people and our nation that we have ever faced. Faced with overwhelming odds, we would almost certainly have to use our weapons of last resort, including those that we have historically denied as ever possessing. As a lowly solider I do not know the extent of our weapons stockpile, but it is generally acknowledged as now exceeding even the capabilities of the British. We also have land based, and sea based delivery platforms, as well as the very formidable Israeli air force option.
Our estimates show that we could lose almost a million Israeli soldiers and citizens in such a strike and counter strike scenario, offset by enemy losses numbering almost 20 million. There is no question that this battle will be of Biblical proportions.
The time is at hand, I can only hope and pray for a last minute diplomatic solution, or that our enemies will find their potential losses too high a price to pay. As for myself and every Israeli, we will gladly give our lives as many of our brave countrymen thru out history have done before us, to insure the life of our country. I pray that, God, once again will allow us to defeat our adversaries.
(Author’s note: No matter what side of this issue you fall on, no one wants this war. However, the story below represents a “likely” scenario.)
We’ve been training out in the desert for 6 months now. Boredom and monotony are punctuated with urgent and realistic drills. They never really tell us if we are being called into action or is this just another training maneuver. I really can’t complain because I volunteered for this mission. We were told at the start that our success would be vital for the survival of my people.
Over and over, we have practiced negotiating the desert terrain in almost complete darkness, training for a mission we all hoped would never be put into action. Our role was to make a stealthy entry into enemy territory and locate key defense fortifications, determine troop strength, locate weapons production facilities, and missile sites.
Today, we are called into readiness and told, “this is not a drill”. I take a short helicopter ride back to Tel Aviv for an important briefing. It seems our intelligence people (among the best in the world) have conclusive evidence that the Iranians are now producing nuclear weapons. They have been allowed to continue their nuclear development program under the guise that it was for peaceful use in power generation. Now, even the passive and largely inept Nuclear Regulatory Committee has acknowledged that the Iranian program is very suspect.
The Israeli people do not want war, we are a peaceful people, however, our tiny nation is surrounded by countries that choose to deny us our very existence. The rhetoric lately has reached a feverish pitch, as leaders of foreign governments swear to “wipe us off the map” or “push us into the sea”. These are threats that we do not take lightly. Our history dictates that we face these threats or suffer unacceptable consequences. If these madmen are allowed to develop and posses nuclear weapons, our chances of defending our nation are seriously compromised. I hope the rest of the world understands that waiting is a risk we can not afford to take.
Several times in the past we have acted preemptively and aggressively against foreign powers, when we felt our national security was at stake. A small country like Israel can not afford to rely on a purely defensive posture. In our preemptive strikes against Iraq and Syria, we risked the wrath of global opinion and condemnation. Fortunately we consider global opinion a distant second to national security in our planning. Afterward diplomats from many countries, even those that are friendly to us, were speaking out against our actions. The truth is, that many of those same foreign leaders knew of our actions in advance, and secretly aided us in our efforts. I asked myself if the other world powers would turn against us if we act first again this time, but I console myself with the fact that I am just a soldier. The protection of my country and my people are paramount to me.
In any case, the prime minister has determined that we must strike first and we must strike now. It has also been determined that my small group of IDF special forces will be the tip of the spear, we are to ordered to be ready to deploy within 24 hours. It is made known to me that the Americans have knowledge of our plan and will “turn their back” and open a land and air corridor thru the Iraqi territory that they occupy for our planes and troops.
Because of our history of “first attack”, our targets have been hardened and our adversaries are on alert for our possible attack. The facilities we are going after have been embedded deep in the earth, covered by tons of concrete and protected by batteries of anti aircraft instillations. We are also faced with the formidable task of simultaneously taking out several production facilities scattered about the country. Logistically, this is much more distant and difficult than our previously successful missions. Fortunately we already have operators and agents on the ground providing us valuable real time intelligence. Every day we wait to react now, only lessens our chance of success.
Our goal will be to so damage these facilities as to negate their ability to produce weapon grade material, and set back their progress a dozen years or so. Unfortunately, now that this horrible technology exists, we can no longer “put the genie back in the bottle”
I am told that our government has authorized the use of force, using any and all means at our disposal to accomplish this mission. That is military speak for all out war and even the use of the terrible weapons that our country has at it’s disposal. This was not a decision that was made lightly, and we are all convinced that our success is a matter of national survival.
Our military has been war planning for this strike for several years now, but we have delayed taking action. We have waited at the urging of the United States, and have pursued every diplomatic channel. Many say we have waited too long. We have run thru every possible variation of the attack, carefully weighing the effects on both Israel and the entire Middle East.
Our planners were 100% correct in assuming that the Syrians would not retaliate after we bombed their secret Korean inspired nuclear facility in the desert, in fact they quietly buried the remains to hide them from satellite view. We have no such delusions this time around. For starters Iran has one of the largest and most well equipped armies in the world, and we consider a counter attack eminent.
A counter attack would immediately escalate the incident into an all out regional war. We are confident that we would face missile strikes and troop incursions on at least two fronts. We anticipate that Syrians, and their clients Hamas and Hezbollah would quickly join the battle. We feel confident that the U.S. would then be forced into the battle, despite being seriously over extended in Iran and Afghanistan. American troops in Iraq would be overrun by both Iranian troops and rebels sympathetic to the Iranian cause thought the region. There is also a high likelihood that other more moderate Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia, and Egypt would be under great pressure to join the cause of their Muslim brothers, and if they did not act, face a possible uprising by their own people. It’s possible that even some previously Russian countries could be drawn in, due to economic and military interests in Iran.
In short we feel this war would be the greatest threat to the existence of our people and our nation that we have ever faced. Faced with overwhelming odds, we would almost certainly have to use our weapons of last resort, including those that we have historically denied as ever possessing. As a lowly solider I do not know the extent of our weapons stockpile, but it is generally acknowledged as now exceeding even the capabilities of the British. We also have land based, and sea based delivery platforms, as well as the very formidable Israeli air force option.
Our estimates show that we could lose almost a million Israeli soldiers and citizens in such a strike and counter strike scenario, offset by enemy losses numbering almost 20 million. There is no question that this battle will be of Biblical proportions.
The time is at hand, I can only hope and pray for a last minute diplomatic solution, or that our enemies will find their potential losses too high a price to pay. As for myself and every Israeli, we will gladly give our lives as many of our brave countrymen thru out history have done before us, to insure the life of our country. I pray that, God, once again will allow us to defeat our adversaries.
P.I.B.
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