THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING

I’m not exactly sure when the first computer was actually developed, but early computers were large and not very efficient. The first purely electronic digital computers surfaced around 1946. The cost and expertise required to use them, put them well out of the hands of the average homeowner. Over time the components were made smaller and much more powerful. More modern computers began processing increased amounts of data in a fraction of the time of their older counterparts. The first personal computers became popular in the mid ‘70’s with models like the Altair 8800 and were not much more than desk calculators on steroids

Room sized computers were reduced to the size of a desk and went from there onto the desk, and now are laptops. Chips, memory, and storage devices have all made quantum leaps in technology. Without these technological leaps computers would not be the tools they are today (and gamers would be left with nothing to do).My question: Where does this all lead us to? Our hunger for faster and more powerful machines seems unquenchable.

Ongoing computers development is on a path that will insure that they get increasingly faster and more powerful. New software helps us to interface with these computers in previously un-imagined ways. Today, we have voice recognition, optical, and wireless input devices, along with the ability to down load to various hand held devices. With the advent of the internet, computers can share information (and we can buy a bunch of junk on e-bay), and more importantly “network”.

If we look at the rapid advancement of computers in the last 50 years alone, the progress has been nothing less than amazing. Today’s computers already process information at speeds no human can match, however they lack human logic, thought, and the reasoning ability of the human brain. (they also don’t call in sick or have senior moments). We are already dependent on computers in the home and work place ( ever been in a bank or retail store when the computers stop working... it’s chaos.), and in the military (the newest high tech jets require computers making thousands of minute course corrections, just to keep them in the air.)

It’s not hard to foresee the advances already under development and that are possible in the next 50 years. Moore’s law has been fairly accurate up to now, which basically says that computing ability is likely to double every two years. Following that trend and then adding in a few new break thru technologies, and the sky is the limit. The next generation of computers may be able to apply stored data, seek new input and make decisions, not unlike the reasoning of humans. Some sources estimate that by the year 2029 a desk top computer may have the processing power of the human brain.( even sooner if we continue to avoid using our brains) It is also surmised that future computers may reach a level of artificial intelligence by 2045 that will be capable of “unsupervised learning”. From there computers could design new computers (and soon their will be the sound of little keyboards around the house). Some forward thinkers even see a direct interface with the human brain as being possible. Couple these advances with progress in robotics and we could create intelligent robots. Honda has already matured their prototype robot to be able to walk and avoid obstacles.

I don’t think there is any doubt that future computers will rival and exceed the capabilities of the human brain. But, can they reach the level of independent thought, and if so, what are the consequences? What will be the role of these “super computers” in our society, and what will be the role of the humans, once we are no longer the most intelligent life forms on the planet ? ( we are, aren’t we? ) Have we opened a Pandora’s box? Does this new level of technology elevate us to an even higher level of existence, with our machines and computers serving us; or could we end up serving them? Worse yet, could we go the way of the dinosaurs? Just to be on the safe side, I’m going out for a few beers and making friends with my Dell desk top right away. I don’t want to end up answering to some high end “x-box” boss in the future.
P.I.B.

Feel free to contact me at pooritalianboy@gmail.com