THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING

THE FUTURE OF COMPUTING

I’m not exactly sure when the first computer was actually developed, but early computers were large and not very efficient. The first purely electronic digital computers surfaced around 1946. The cost and expertise required to use them, put them well out of the hands of the average homeowner. Over time the components were made smaller and much more powerful. More modern computers began processing increased amounts of data in a fraction of the time of their older counterparts. The first personal computers became popular in the mid ‘70’s with models like the Altair 8800 and were not much more than desk calculators on steroids

Room sized computers were reduced to the size of a desk and went from there onto the desk, and now are laptops. Chips, memory, and storage devices have all made quantum leaps in technology. Without these technological leaps computers would not be the tools they are today (and gamers would be left with nothing to do).My question: Where does this all lead us to? Our hunger for faster and more powerful machines seems unquenchable.

Ongoing computers development is on a path that will insure that they get increasingly faster and more powerful. New software helps us to interface with these computers in previously un-imagined ways. Today, we have voice recognition, optical, and wireless input devices, along with the ability to down load to various hand held devices. With the advent of the internet, computers can share information (and we can buy a bunch of junk on e-bay), and more importantly “network”.

If we look at the rapid advancement of computers in the last 50 years alone, the progress has been nothing less than amazing. Today’s computers already process information at speeds no human can match, however they lack human logic, thought, and the reasoning ability of the human brain. (they also don’t call in sick or have senior moments). We are already dependent on computers in the home and work place ( ever been in a bank or retail store when the computers stop working... it’s chaos.), and in the military (the newest high tech jets require computers making thousands of minute course corrections, just to keep them in the air.)

It’s not hard to foresee the advances already under development and that are possible in the next 50 years. Moore’s law has been fairly accurate up to now, which basically says that computing ability is likely to double every two years. Following that trend and then adding in a few new break thru technologies, and the sky is the limit. The next generation of computers may be able to apply stored data, seek new input and make decisions, not unlike the reasoning of humans. Some sources estimate that by the year 2029 a desk top computer may have the processing power of the human brain.( even sooner if we continue to avoid using our brains) It is also surmised that future computers may reach a level of artificial intelligence by 2045 that will be capable of “unsupervised learning”. From there computers could design new computers (and soon their will be the sound of little keyboards around the house). Some forward thinkers even see a direct interface with the human brain as being possible. Couple these advances with progress in robotics and we could create intelligent robots. Honda has already matured their prototype robot to be able to walk and avoid obstacles.

I don’t think there is any doubt that future computers will rival and exceed the capabilities of the human brain. But, can they reach the level of independent thought, and if so, what are the consequences? What will be the role of these “super computers” in our society, and what will be the role of the humans, once we are no longer the most intelligent life forms on the planet ? ( we are, aren’t we? ) Have we opened a Pandora’s box? Does this new level of technology elevate us to an even higher level of existence, with our machines and computers serving us; or could we end up serving them? Worse yet, could we go the way of the dinosaurs? Just to be on the safe side, I’m going out for a few beers and making friends with my Dell desk top right away. I don’t want to end up answering to some high end “x-box” boss in the future.
P.I.B.

Feel free to contact me at pooritalianboy@gmail.com

FLYING CAR

FLYING CAR

It’s long been the stuff of science fiction and futuristic dreams, but the flying car, is now a reality. In fact, even the Pentagon is working on their own version for military purposes (those guys could turn anything into a weapon). Their concept is to use the vehicle for scouting missions and then fly off into the sunset if the need occurs.

Aside from the military efforts, several private sector companies are also working feverishly on designing a working model flying car, for mass production. I’m having a little difficultly finding the need or potential market for one, except for the “WOW” ..look what I’ve got factor.

I’ve found over the years that most things that are designed to multi-task are normally not very good and any one function. So, in reality, we would probably end up with a lousy car, and an inefficient small plane. (oh, the insurance guys are going to love this one..The cavemen is set for life). Not only that, any teenager can drive, but flying ?.

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I fell asleep last night while trying to imagine myself 20 years into the future driving one of these gizmos. It was love at first sight, I wanted the 2 seater convertible model parked right next to the sign that said “GIVE FLIGHT TO YOU FANTASIES”. I had to be the first in my neighborhood to have one so I plunked down my 150 grand at the local dealer (Buy and Fly) for the stripped down version. (I did buy the optional low fuel alert system and doubled up on air bags) The salesmen takes me for a quick spin and flight and requires me to watch a 10 minute video on operations and flight safety, and then issues me a stamp on my license showing that I am now certified to operate a land/sky vehicle. Thanks to a loophole in the federal aviation laws,(lobbied for by makers of these dual use passenger cars) any vehicle under 150 horsepower, who’s main function is that of a terrestrial vehicle, does not need to comply with normal Federal Aviation laws.(not really, I just made that up..this is a dream sequence after all) He hands me a complementary pair of aviation sunglasses, a few bags of those airline peanuts, a pair of gold wings to pin on my shirt, and a small back pack parachute and sends me on my way. The next day I’m 15 minutes late and I need to get to work quickly. Traffic is a bear, and I’m laying on the horn, in bumper to bumper traffic. I take a quick glance down at the button on my dashboard that says “flight mode”. In frustration I push the button and my little sub compact car begins the transformation to “Super Cesna”. Before my very eyes, the wings fold out from under the chassis and a small propeller juts out the front of the bumper. The light turns green and I sound the aviation alarm to warn my fellow drivers that I am about to go airborne, and hit my directional signal (the “Up Arrow”) on my steering column. The little old lady in the big green Buick (yes, Buick is still around), shoots me the finger because my unfolding wing just put a three inch gash in the side of her car. I slowly gather speed as I taxi down the roadway, my wing tips plow down road signs, small trees, and a poor guy passing me on his motorcycle. But that doesn’t matter, nearly as much as the semi truck that seems to be in the way of my taxi runway. I pull back on the stick (or steering wheel as the case may be), with all my might, the nose of my craft, inches off the ground. At this point, I can read the fine print on the back of the 40 foot long trailer in front of me. My aerial proximity alarm is screaming in my ear. I put the pedal to the metal and just clear the back of the trailer as I make my assent. I exhale a sigh of relief as the vehicles below me now seem smaller. Now, this is what it’s all about, I’m flying, free as a bird, leaving all the traffic and earthly worries behind me. Free from the asphalt jungle below, I retract the tires, with the simple push of a button, and the transformation to a small plane is complete. A quick glance at my altimeter shows I’m cruising at 300 feet at 150 miles per hour. I kick in the cruise control and crank up my satellite radio. Suddenly, I’m stunned out of my blissful dream state, as my proximity alarm goes off again, this time with a deafening report. Bam, I’m thrown hard to the left as I feel an impact on my right side. Out of the corner of my eye, I see a flash of green, as I’m loosing altitude, and the ground rushes towards me. I see the little old lady in the green Buick flying by, her head just barely clearing the steering wheel and completely oblivious to the fact that she just clipped off my right wing. I guess, even old ladies and bad drivers can buy these things also.

Even though I don’t see the market for this “Ca-plane” (I just coined that term), in all fairness I should really give the concept a thorough cerebral workout. On the positive side, traffic on our roads would decrease, but it would add a whole new dimension to the term fender bender. (as flying accidents tend to be among the types you don’t walk away from). Also, the flying car concept could be good for commerce, as new businesses sprout up(much like the motels of yester year did when automobiles became common) to cater to the airborne driver. Fast food places could hang your bag of food on a high pole, that you have to snag, as you fly by and more billboards would be painted on the tops of tall buildings.

I guess there are still a few bugs to work out, but maybe these hybrid “Aero-mobiles” ( I should copyright this term also), will become common place in the future. I don’t know about you, but I planning a wider garage for my next new house. Hey, they laughed at the Wright Brothers, you know.

P.I.B.